PURPOSE This study systematically analyzes the determinants of victory and defeat in Para Taekwondo by employing a decision tree model based on data from the 2024 Paris Paralympic Games. The study also sought to provide foundational data to enhance the athletic performance of Para Taekwondo. METHODS Game videos of 105 athletes who participated in the 2024 Paris Paralympics were analyzed. The variables examined on torso-scoring techniques, taking into account the competition rules and the characteristics of athletes with physical disabilities. Video analysis was conducted using the LongoMatch program. The collected data were used to develop a decision tree model with the CRT algorithm in IBM SPSS 25.0 to identify factors influencing match outcomes. To ensure model simplicity and prevent overfitting, constraints were applied to the maximum tree depth, as well as the number of parent and child nodes. RESULTS In men’s matches, the success rates of roundhouse kicks and double kicks were found to significantly influence match outcomes. For women, the success rate of roundhouse kicks and back kicks was the primary determinant of victory or defeat. The male winner node (Node 6) achieved a gain of 30.3% and a response value of 100%, while the female winner node (Node 6) recorded a gain of 50% and a response value of 94.1%, indicating high predictability of match outcomes. Model performance evaluation revealed that winner classification accuracy was 81.8% and loser accuracy 84.2%, for male athletes, while female winner and loser accuracies were 83.8% and 85.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrates that the key technical factors influencing victory in Para Taekwondo differ by gender. Specifically, roundhouse kicks and double kicks were decisive for male athletes, whereas roundhouse kicks and back kicks were critical for female athletes. These findings can inform the development of gender-specific training strategies and predictive models, thereby contributing to the improvement of athletic performance in Para Taekwondo.
